FutureWire Predictions for 2005

Well, I may as well do the new-year thing and add my own thoughts to the growing collection of predictions for 2005. Based on the trends I've been observing this past year, combined with the best of other people's forecasts, my own intuition and that magic 8-ball I got for Christmas (just kidding!), I'm offering my own forecasts for the coming year in four areas that FutureWire has been covering.

The war in Iraq, energy prices, terrorism and (as we've seen this past couple of weeks) natural disasters will be the big variables for the coming year, with the power to change or negate anyone's forecasts for 2005.

So here goes. Have a safe and happy new year, don't drink and drive, and all that good stuff...

TECHNOLOGY

Blogs will continue to proliferate and shape public opinion. Like the Web in the mid-'90s, blogs are in their toddlerhood; we're chasing them around making sure they don't pull a bookcase down on themselves. But they're maturing rapidly, especially with established news organizations embracing the blog format.

Audio and video blogging (a.k.a. podcasting) will increase as well, but their growth will depend on the adoption of high-speed Internet access in the home. Ultimately, anyone so inclined can create their own "radio" or "TV" show, and, through viral PR, could emerge as the next big media personality (think JibJab). Conversely, the creative potential of audio and video blogs will bring more world-class talent (and more dollars) into the blogosphere.

Personal media players that hold photos and play audio and video files will be the must-have gadgets for next holiday season. Recordable DVD players that interact with personal media devices will also be hot.

Concerns about privacy and identity theft will increase. A movement will emerge that will seek to place limits on employers' use of technology to monitor employees. We may even see the rumblings of an anti-technology backlash.

Interest in RFID tags will continue to spread. Standards will be codified, and prices will fall low enough to make tags attractive to even low-end retailers.

The use of cell phones in public will become an increasingly contentious issue. Public places will establish "cell-free" zones where making or receiving phone calls or text messages is prohibited.

Social networking will increase in popularity, with virtual communities becoming just as important to people's lives as real ones. People will belong to many different professional and social networks. Capitalizing on snob appeal, highly exclusive social networks will appear, charging exorbitant entry fees and requiring references from the "right" people for membership.

File sharing will continue to stymie the music and movie industries, as users develop new technologies to circumvent crackdowns. In response, independent music labels and film producers will pioneer new business models that balance access with compensation for artists. Coupled with Internet-based distribution, their reach could pose a real threat to major labels and studios.

Municipalities looking to establish their own wireless networks will run afoul of phone carriers, cable companies and ISPs, who (correctly) perceive such initiatives as threats to their business. The whole thing will probably end up in court, unless partnership arrangements can be worked out.


BUSINESS

Hiring will increase, creating a seller's market that will be the most lucrative for workers in years... though nothing like the dot-com boom of the late '90s.

Much of the prosperity of the developed world will hinge on energy costs. If they hold steady (or better yet, fall), all will be well. But a disruption in oil supply could slow or even stall the global economy.

Entrepreneurs will attempt to build new business models around blogs, though few will succeed outright. One possibility is a talent market for freelance bloggers; another is an investment market for blogs that, unlike BlogShares, uses real money.

Telecommuting will become increasingly common. As the labor market tightens, more employers will offer it when possible, and more workers will demand it. In the event of an energy shortage, businesses and even individuals might be offered tax incentives for telecommuting.

Though not quite ready to retire, Baby Boomers who feel time is more important than money will choose to "downshift" their careers -- working fewer hours for less pay, but with more free time and less stress. Employers facing hard times may encourage downshifting as an alternative to layoffs.


POLITICS

The "culture wars" will continue to be fought on a variety of fronts, and at a grass-roots level. Evangelical Christians will continue to assert themseves... ultimately ushering in a backlash from other, non-Christian groups.

Liberals in "red" areas will migrate to "blue" communities, and vice versa, further sharpeining regional divides. People who never before thought of themselves as liberals or conservatives will more closely identify with political and cultural labels.

In a non-election year, news from Washington will take a back seat to other events -- but not if, for instance, President Bush has an opportunity to nominate a new Supreme Court justice.

In the event of an energy crisis, the Bush Administration will take heat for not making alternative energy a national priority. If a crisis is severe enough, a new national political figure could emerge who places energy at the top of his/her agenda.


MEDIA

As the culture wars divide the population more sharply, and the dominant voices become those of the extremes, media outlets will be forced to choose sides. Instead of valuing the media for its objectivity, audiences will choose media based on political and cultural preferences (or what in the old days they used to call "bias").

The FCC will face pressure to impose more stringent "decency" standards on network television, while Congress will seek to censor cable TV and satellite radio. The Internet will remain the last bastion of unregulated media -- only because so much of it can originate and be mirrored outside the US. Look for a rise in offshore Internet hosting firms if this scenario plays out.

Expect to see at least one major news personality break away from their current employer and strike out independently with a text, audio or video blog. Already, we've seen a precedent with Howard Stern abandoning traditional media for satellite radio. Any breakout blogging star will be a highly controversial figure who is "too hot" for regular TV or radio; pornography will almost certainly gain a foothold here as well.

As cable TV, satellite radio and the Internet eclipse traditional broadcast media, a "media divide" will appear as those who are unable or unwilling to pay subscription fees face fewer news and entertainment options. Though traditional broadcasting isn't going away anytime soon, the perception will be that the "best" material is on pay services or online.

Games will continue to become an important part of the media mix. Writers looking to market manuscripts will opt to sell their work to game developers rather than movie studios or book publishers.

Advertisers will need to develop alternatives to the traditional 30-second TV commercial, as more people use DVRs to zap commercial spots. Product placements, Web tie-ins and ticker-tape ads are candidates.

The Fly-Powered Robot

British scientists have developed a robot that could simultaneously take honors as the year's most clever and most gross innovation. The EcoBot II powers itself solely by eating housefiles to generate electricity. The robot uses human excrement to attract files, which it then captures and digests. Mmmm, tasty!

The EcoBot is designed to operate over prolonger periods in harsh environments, where humans would not be available to replace or recharge batteries. It could also function in areas where solar panels would not be effective. Robots like the EcoBot could serve as surveyors for military, security, industrial and environmental applications.

Source: CNN.com

Asteroid Strike for 2029 Ruled Out

If you're making any plans for April 13, 2029, feel free to pencil them in. NASA scientists who feared that an asteroid might strike Earth on that date have changed their forecast, saying that asteroid 2004 MN4 will safely pass us by. NASA has been tracking the asteriod since June, initially thinking that it might be on a collision course with Earth. But after studying its trajectory more closely, they are now confident that the asteroid is not a threat.

Source: CNN.com

Study: The Internet Takes Up More of Our Time

A recent study conducted by the Stanford Institute for the Quantitative Study of Society has found that Internet usage takes time away from other aspects of life, including socializing, TV viewing and even sleep.

"'People don't understand that time is hydraulic,' Norman Nie, the group's director, said, meaning that time spent on the Internet is time taken away from other activities."

While hardly earth-shattering news, the study has come up with other interesting tidbits, including:

• 75 percent of all Americans now have some level of Internet access.
• The average user spends 14 minutes per day -- or 10 workdays a year -- dealing with computer problems.
• Women are heavier users of e-mail and instant messaging (active use); men prefer Web browsing, discussion forums and chat rooms (passive use).
• Younger users prefer synchronous communication such as instant messaging, whereas older users prefer e-mail.

Source: New York Times

More Emerging Tech Trends for 2005

The end of the year is a time when most people reflect on "the year that was." However, as futurists, we're much more interested in the year to come.

Earlier this month we profiled the top technology trends for 2005 as selected by the Consumer Electronics Association. Now, Red Herring is weighing in with its top picks. Its top-ten list is a bit more esoteric, though nothing in it should surprise anyone who follows emerging technologies.

A Dire Warning for Local TV News

Media consultant Terry Heaton has written an essay warning that 2005 will be a "do or die" year for local TV news outlets. "2005 will be the most important and difficult year in the history of local broadcasting," the piece begins, "and by year's end, the landscape could well be littered with the corpses of those who hung on too long."

Heaton discusses how the disruptive technologies we've profiled here -- blogging, moblogging, podcasting, videocasting, to name a few -- will continue to hammer away at the business models of local TV news stations, who don't have the financial resources of the major networks to stave off the attacks. Regional TV news media, he argues, will have to embrace new technologies if they are to survive, though too many are in denial.

Already, in the Philadelphia media market, we've begun to see the beginnings of such change. The local network affiliates have been leaders in creating Web-based content and videocasting, and have begun taking baby steps into the blogosphere. Heaton's timetable might be aggressive for major markets like Philadelphia, as they have the resources to hire the best technical minds for engineering a turnaround. Smaller TV news markets are likely to be far more vulnerable.

Source: Pomo Blog

Tsunami Relief

I'm back from my all-too-brief Christmas hiatus, hoping that those of you who celebrated the holiday had a good one.

Of course, the big story over the past several days has been the deadly tsunami that struck southern Asia and, at latest count, caused 80,000 deaths. If you are interesting in helping out in any way you can, CNN.com has posted links to charities and relief agencies who are accepting donations on the victims' behalf.

Also, as you might imagine, Smart Mobs has posts telling how mobile phones and SMS messaging have helped save lives during the disaster, the role that blogs are playing in relaying information and coordinating relief (such as this Blogger blog), and an ICQ message board and free SMS service dedicated to helping people locate friends and loved ones in the stricken areas. WorldChanging is covering the situation as well, with numerous posts and links to resources.

Merry Christmas To All, And To All a Good Night!

This will likely be my last post until after Christmas... so I'm taking this time to wish you and yours a safe and happy holiday (especially for those of you travelling through the Midwest this week). I also want to thank all those who have supported FutureWire over the past six months and made it a success.

It would seem that a blog dedicated to the future wouldn't have a lot to say about Christmas, a holiday that's all about reminiscing, tradition and nostalgia. Everyone wants an old-fashioned Christmas; no one wants a futuristic one. Recall that in Dickens' A Christmas Carol, the Spirits of Christmases Past and Present were amiable sorts... but the Spirit of Christmases to Come was to be feared.

But allow me to set aside my futurist hat for a moment and don my other hat -- that of a "citizen journalist." And in that great journalistic tradition (yes, even in the blogosphere, some traditions must hold fast), I'd like to quote a passage that, as much as anything ever written, captures what Christmas is all about.

Faithfully, newspapers around the world reprint this every season. You've probably read it a million times... yet while it was written over a century ago, it never gets old, cliched or irrelevant. I'm referring to young Virginia O'Hanlon's famous letter to the long-defunct New York Sun asking if there was a Santa Claus, and editorial writer Francis P. Church's equally famous reply:

Dear Editor—

I am 8 years old. Some of my little friends say there is no Santa Claus. Papa says, “If you see it in The Sun, it’s so.” Please tell me the truth, is there a Santa Claus?

Virginia O’Hanlon

Virginia, your little friends are wrong. They have been affected by the skepticism of a skeptical age. They do not believe except they see. They think that nothing can be which is not comprehensible by their little minds. All minds, Virginia, whether they be men’s or children’s, are little. In this great universe of ours, man is a mere insect, an ant, in his intellect as compared with the boundless world about him, as measured by the intelligence capable of grasping the whole of truth and knowledge.

Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus. He exists as certainly as love and generosity and devotion exist, and you know that they abound and give to your life its highest beauty and joy. Alas! how dreary would be the world if there were no Santa Claus! It would be as dreary as if there were no Virginias. There would be no childlike faith then, no poetry, no romance to make tolerable this existence. We should have no enjoyment, except in sense and sight. The external light with which childhood fills the world would be extinguished.

Not believe in Santa Claus! You might as well not believe in fairies. You might get your papa to hire men to watch in all the chimneys on Christmas eve to catch Santa Claus, but even if you did not see Santa Claus coming down, what would that prove? Nobody sees Santa Claus, but that is no sign that there is no Santa Claus. The most real things in the world are those that neither children nor men can see. Did you ever see fairies dancing on the lawn? Of course not, but that’s no proof that they are not there. Nobody can conceive or imagine all the wonders there are unseen and unseeable in the world.

You tear apart the baby’s rattle and see what makes the noise inside, but there is a veil covering the unseen world which not the strongest man, nor even the united strength of all the strongest men that ever lived could tear apart. Only faith, poetry, love, romance, can push aside that curtain and view and picture the supernal beauty and glory beyond. Is it all real? Ah, Virginia, in all this world there is nothing else real and abiding.

No Santa Claus! Thank God! he lives and lives forever. A thousand years from now, Virginia, nay 10 times 10,000 years from now, he will continue to make glad the heart of childhood. [N.B. For more on the history of this letter, click here.]

The letter was first published in 1897, but it could have been written yesterday. The unstated charm of it, of course, comes when you realize that it would have been so easy for Mr. Church to have sent little Virginia's letter to the "circular file," muttering something about dumb kids wasting his time. And it would have been so easy for Virginia to have joined the ranks of the cynical and disillusioned as a result. But thanks to the earnestness of both, that's not what happened. And that's what makes it special. Would a modern child consider writing such a letter to, say, the New York Times or CNN? Would one of their editors take the time to respond so eloquently?

Neither Virginia nor Francis Church could have fathomed such a thing as the Internet, but as you can see, their exchange lives on in cyberspace. And in all likelihood, our great-grandchildren will read and re-read it on December days to come, and be moved by it every time.

One of my goals with FutureWire has been to help readers make sense of a world that's constantly changing. Yet some things don't change, and shoudn't change. Christmas, thankfully, is one of them. Beyond the hype, hysteria and commercialism, Christmas is good for the soul, no matter how you celebrate it.

Holidays give us "permission" to do things we're too self-conscious to do otherwise. Halloween allows us to dress up as someone other than ourselves. Valentine's Day helps the romantically-challenged express their affections. On Mother's Day and Father's Day, we can tell Mom and Dad how much we love them without embarassment. Likewise, Christmas allows us to relive our childhoods... or even reconstruct them. Through Christmas, we can celebrate all that's good and charitable and fun without a hint of irony. And in a frightening, all-too-adult world, that's therapeutic. The "true meaning of Christmas," after all, is rooted in childhood innocence, through which even the most jaded of us have been conditioned all our lives to love it. If nothing else, it's the one day all year when the outside world reliably grinds to a halt, when all adult cares and worries are set aside. It's the one day our secular culture continues to hold sacred, honoring the birth of one child by celebrating all children.

The need to celebrate at this time of year goes back to the dawn of recorded history. In European culture, "Christmas" predates the birth of Christ by thousands of years. Even those neolithic people, so long ago, recognized the need for a celebration during an otherwise bleak time of year. And in a couple of days, Christians everywhere will rejoice in the birthday of Jesus.

So with that, I repeat my yuletide wish for you, whatever your plans for this holiday.

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night!

P.S. Graphics for this post were swiped from ELMS Puzzles Christmas Gallery

From Barry Bonds to Cyborgs

AlwaysOn has an interesting perspective on the recent steroid controversy surrounding Major League Baseball. Perhaps we're simply seeing the tip of the iceberg, as body enhancements as predicted by transhumanists become more widespread and more sophisticated. If we are troubled by the prospect of Barry Bonds and other athletes enhancing their performance through chemicals, how will we react to the advent of cyborgs and bionics, which could be upon us sooner than we think?

Source: AlwaysOn

Clothes Made from Soy

Sounds a little odd... but like so many things futurists look at, it makes perfect sense once you give it some thought. Chinese fabric producers are developing soy-based fabrics, which are cheaper to produce and more environmentally friendly than traditional textiles. Developed in the late '90s, soy textiles are popular in Asia, but are just now beginning to appear in Europe and the US.

An eco-friendly clothing retailer called Of the Earth is marketing a line of soy-based "soy yoga" wear (shirt pictured above). Top fashion designers such as Giorgio Armani have embraced organic cotton, so it's possible that they have their eyes on soy-based fabrics as well.

Source: bookofjoe

Weather Podcasting

Just in time for holiday travel, a programmer named Jorge Velazquez has written a script that sends weather forecasts via RSS feeds.

The Perl script parses the XML feed of Weather.com, and has three variables: locid (location ID; a ZIP code will work for US locations), dayf (how many days forward you want your forecast, up to 10 days; default is 2), and unit ("m" for metric, "s" or "e" for standard/English). Included in Jorge's post is his programming methodology and the source code.

You can test the script by putting the following URL in your RSS feed reader:

http://www.jorgev.com/cgi-bin/weather.cgi?locid=XXXXX&dayf=5&unit=e

Replace "XXXXX" with a valid ZIP code or city code. The result should be a five-day forecast for the location of your choice. The script also supposedly converts the text to audible speech in MP3 files, though the LAME encoder is necessary.

If nothing else, this is an interesting experiment in potential uses for RSS feeds and podcasts, and hopefully will serve as a inspiration to others.

Source: Gordon McLean

Germany Builds Solar Energy Power Plant

A California company, PowerLight Corp., has built a 30-acre solar power generating facility in Bavaria, in southern Germany. If successful, the plant would serve as a model for generating renewable energy.

The plant went online just this month, and is capable of generating 10 megawatts of electricity, or enough to power 9,000 German homes. All while creating zero pollution.

Germany is the world's leading producer of wind power, and the second-largest producer of solar energy (after Japan). German law allows producers of renewable energy to sell that power back to the electricity grid at premium rates, leading to a boom in solar farms and windmills among landowners. These, however, are proving to be controversial, as many see them as eyesores. All these elements provide lessons for the resto of the world to learn about the pros and cons of renewable energy.

Source: The Higher Pie

Gaming Industry Surpasses Film Industry

Video and computer gaming is on a roll... so much so that the industry's $10 billion annual revenue has surpassed that of Hollywood. Game titles such as Halo 2, Sims 2, Grand Theft Auto and Half-Life are household words, even in households without gamers. New releases of games attract crowds and long lines normally reserved for blockbuster movies and and albums from the hottest music acts.

[Alert readers have noted that the gaming industry has surpassed domestic film box-office revenue only, not DVD rentals or overseas releases. However, even this is a significant achievement.]

In November alone, sales of video games hit $849 million. When Microsoft released Halo 2 last month, it reported sales of $125 million in the first 24 hours! Compare that with this year's biggest opening weekend for a movie (Spider-Man 2), which grossed $114 million.

What's driving these numbers? Clearly, the technology keeps getting better every year, which in turn attracts talented programmers and other creative types who want to develop even better games. But unlike the Atari and Coleco games kids that my generation grew up with, today's games are aimed at adults (whicn explains why games feature more sex and violence). Gamers in their 20's and 30's with disposable income and time on their hands cheerfully plunk down $50 a copy for the latest games. Indeed, a survey by the Entertainment Software Association found that the average gamer is 29 and spends more time playing games than watching TV or going to the movies.

Read that last sentence again. This is where today's -- and tomorrow's -- entertainment dollars are going. Investors, marketers, creatives and advertisers all must take careful note if they want to stay on top of this demographic. Expect also to hear more news and controversy concerning games, ranging from the effectiveness of rating labels to their potential role in the decline of other media.

Source: Slashdot

Media 2014: A Flash Documentary

Filmmaker Robin Sloan has created a Flash-based documentary from the perspective of the year 2014, covering the "history" of news media from the advent of the Web onward. It's an excellent summary of where we are and where we're headed -- though the end point is far from a utopian vision.

Though the film is only 8 minutes, it's best viewed through a high-speed connection.

Source: Slashdot

Merry Christmas... Or Else!

Every year at this time, we hear tales of political correctness run amok as symbols of Christmas come under fire. Now, there's a new and equally distressing trend in the opposite direction.

A group in California is organizing a boycott of Federated Department Stores -- the parent company of Macy's and Bloomingdale's -- because it uses phrases like "Happy Holidays" instead of "Merry Christmas" in its advertising and store decorations. Many have interpreted this as a sign that conservative Christian evangelicals, emboldened by the results of the recent elections, are embarking on a new wave of activism.

Of course, people have the right to shop where they wish, and the "invisible hand" of consumer preference will always decide which businesses thrive and which fail. But it's no better to bully someone into celebrating a holiday than to bully them into ignoring it. Since when did wishing happiness to others, regardless of verbage, become such a nasty thing to do? If someone is going to wish me a merry Christmas, I want them to mean it; otherwise, feel free to wish me a happy holiday. Wish me a happy Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, or Yule; I respect your convictions enough to be honored by your good intentions. And if I wish you a happy Christmas, I would hope you would accept it in kind.

We've reached a point where it's not only offensive to hope for a merry Christmas, it's offensive not to as well. You can't win.

This most recent controversy underscores our poor understanding of our diverse society... not just in the US, but globally. As the "global village" contines to shrink, this challenge is only going to grow. Bloggers, whose work has exposed them to cultures they wouldn't have been aware of otherwise, are doing their part to use their tools and knowledge to increase multicultural cooperation. Yes, it's a baby step, but that's how anything worth doing gets started.

Sources: Boston Herald, Personaldemocracy.com

China Goes Car-Happy

If I were to write about congested superhighways, car-generated smog and high fuel prices, you might assume I was speaking of conditions in the US. But no... these now exist in China, which is experiencing an automotive boom, along with all its consequences.

China now has 25 million cars -- not a lot in a country with a billion-plus population. But that number is expected to double within five years, and triple by 2020. Motor vehicles currently consume 10 percent of China's energy, and China is now second to the US in carbon monoxide emissions.

In an attempt to "leapfrog" over pollution and fuel economy problems, the Chinese government is encouraging motorists to drive smaller cars and hybrids, tightening emission standards, and promoting development of alternative "green" fuels. One factor motivating the Chinese is their hosting of the Olympics in 2008, when they plan to present an environmentally-friendly face to the world.

China's efforts in this area could have a global impact. Because it represents such a large market, any fuel or pollution standards China sets could well be adopted by other countries hoping to export cars there -- even the US.

Source: MSNBC.com

Best-Ever Free Utilities

What better gift to give your favorite geek this year than to point him/her in the direction of some free software! TechSupportAlert.com has a list of the 49 best free computing utilities, complete with links. You'll likely find some familiar names here, plus some new ones as well.

Source: Eyebeam
Download and use all software at your own risk

Self-Heating Foods

Are you so kitchen-challenged that you can't boil water? If so, technology is coming to your rescue. In another sign that the culinary world is going to hell since Martha Stewart went up the river, we now have cans of coffee that heat themselves when opened.

The can mixes calcium oxide and water to heat the can to 140 degrees F in six minutes, and keep the contents warm for a half-hour. The product has been tested in European and Asian markets for some time.

Trendsetting chef Wolfgang Puck has adopted the technology for his own line of lattes, which should be reaching US markets in a couple of months. Each can will retail for about $2.25. By midyear, processed-food manufacturers will adapt the self-heating technique to tea, cocoa, rice and fish products.

These products will certainly generate some buzz simply because of the novelty aspect, but long-term, their real benefit may not be with harried yuppies, but in situations where heat and electricity are unavailable, such as in disaster and war zones, and parts of the developing world. In such situations, they will be livesavers rather than conveniences.

Source: Engadget

When Newspapers Become TV Stations

As the Internet continues to blur distinctions between media types, some interesting combinations are appearing. One of these is the inclusion of video clips in websites run by newspapers. Editor & Publisher, a newspaper industry trade journal, profiles the use of video clips by the News-Journal in Wilmington, Delaware, on its website, DelawareOnline.

Delaware and the News-Journal represent a unique case because the News-Journal is the state's primary paper, and Delaware does not have any major TV stations of its own (being so close to Philadelphia, it doesn't need them). Therefore, DelawareOnline serves a more important purpose than newspaper websites elsewhere. From 2003 to 2004, traffic to DelawareOnline increased tenfold.

As broadband Internet increases its reach and the traditional newspaper continues to struggle, it's little wonder that newspapers everywhere are watching what DelawareOnline is doing and seeing how online video could fit into their strategies. National newspapers such as USA Today (whose parent company also owns the News-Journal) and the Wall Street Journalare eyeing this trend as well. The surely also want to beat any upstarts at their own game.

But the best application might be in what might be termed "micromarkets" -- small but important media markets that aren't well served by traditional "big media" yet want local news. Delaware (the northern part, especially) is a highly affluent, dynamic micromarket that would certainly be of interest to advertisers. Newspapers have the resources, credibility and business motivation to cover these markets, and for them, online video is simply a logical step forward.

Sources: unmediated, POMO Blog

Fabric Keyboard a Step Toward "Smart Clothing"

UK sensor manufacturer Eleksen has developed a flexible fabric keyboard and joystick that can connect via Bluetooth with a PDA or game system.

This product is yet another step toward developing "smart" clothes that carry controls, monitors and interface devices. Already, Eleksen is developing similar controls that provide heat elements for jackets, lighting controls that can be hidden underneath wallpaper, TV remote controls and interfaces for MP3 players.

Source: Electronics Weekly, Clippings.reblog

Biometric Passports by October '05?

US passports issued after October 2005 will include chips containing images of the holder's face, which can be checked against a facial scanner. Or at least that's the plan.

Tests of iris and other biometric scanning systems in the UK and elsewhere have yielded discouraging results. Iris readers have proved difficult to aim correctly, and the process of validating identities is slower than planned... leading to longer delays at airports. As a result, some observers are declaring the biometric technology too immature to put into production.

Source: Nature

AOL, Lycos List Top Web Searches of 2004

As the year winds down, we inevitably start to look back on "the year that was." That's not very futuristic, but looking back can sometimes give us an idea of where we're headed.

Take Web search terms, for instance. They reflect our interests and concerns, whether they be profound or trivial. AOL has released its top search terms for 2004... and the results tell us that we were highly concerned about celebrities, the election, hurricanes, celebrities, sports, celebrities, dieting, celebrities, American Idol, poker, celebrities, and certain "wardrobe malfunctions." Britney Spears, Janet Jackson, the Olsen twins, Paris Hilton and Ashlee Simpson topped the celebrity searches -- possibly more because of the controversy they generated than their talents.

Over at Lycos, Janet Jackson was the most searched-for topic of 2004. Hmmm, wonder why... Celebrities commanded six of the top 10 Lycos searches, and entertainment themes dominated the year's top 100 searches. Nick Berg, whose videotaped beheading by Iraqi insurgents was relased on the Internet, was number 5. The Iraq War was number 16. George W. Bush and John Kerry, at numbers 81 and 96 respectively, almost didn't make the cut.

Overall, there were few surprises in the top searches, as they reflected largely mainstream (if slightly perverse) interests. Perhaps the most significant thing this tells us is how ordinary the Web has become, and how we rely on it as a tool for investigating those things that we're most concerned about. It also suggests that, based on the search topics, the majority of those searching via AOL and Lycos are young people. It would be interesting to see a breakout of search terms by user age, if such a statictic could be calculated, as well as geographic location and income bracket. Or, maybe we're really all that into Britney and Janet...

Source: ClickZ

Holiday Lexicon

For a little Friday afternoon fun, here are a few new words to describe some of those weird and perverse situations we all encounter this time of year (originally attribited to DailyCandy):

Mistleho n. Someone who hangs around under the mistletoe, waiting to get kissed. ("Eve was being such a mistleho at the company party that no one else could get any play from the cute tech guys.")

Eggsnog n. A makeout session that takes place under the influence of eggnog.

Hallmarketing n. The outrageous marketing push that begins two months before each holiday (Halloween decorations in July, Christmas decorations in October).

Santa fraud n. Poorly costumed Santa Claus impersonator. ("Avoid department stores at all costs. They're overrun with Santa frauds this year.")

Dreidel robber n. Someone who cheats young children at dreidel.

Yulezilla n. Someone who goes way too overboard with the Christmas decorations (usually Mom).

Mrs. Claws n. Work buddy's wife whose steely gaze keeps her husband's female colleagues on the other side of the office-party dance floor.

Source: Princepessa

Personal Mobility: Not Done Cookin'

Today, the Segway Human Transporter (HT) is more known for the marketing hype that preceded it than for its ground-breaking design. But the HT may prove to have simply been ahead of its time, as other developers are creating their own personal transporters. However, they appear to be ahead of their time too.

Earlier this month, Toyota unveiled its i-unit prototype, which is essentially a very tiny car for one person.

At first blush, many people -- Americans especially -- will wonder what possible use they would have for such a device. It's a good question. I certainly wouldn't want to take this little guy out on I-95! It appears to be just as clunky as a car for city maneuvering. What happend when it rains or snows? And where the heck are the kids supposed to sit??

For now, personal transportation devices may be a "hammer in search of a nail." They don't fit elegantly into our lives, either culturally or geographically. From an engineering perspective, these devices are exciting and innovative. But with a few exceptions, they aren't very useful to us yet.

Perhaps there may come a culture shift whereby personal mobility will play a critical role. Communities would have to be built with these devices in mind, including infrastructure and legal considerations; retirement villages would be a good proving ground for these. Energy shortages may nudge us toward accepting personal transportation devices, but while the principles behind them are sound, we simply aren't ready for them.

Source: Responsible Nanotechnology

Who Is Liable for Global Warming?

Representatives for the Inuit people of the Arctic are petitioning the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights to rule against the US for "causing global warming and its devastating impacts." Other environmental groups are planning lawsuits against those they hold responsible for generating greenhouse-gas emissions.

Though these cases are hardly clear-cut -- especially since we still don't have a firm understanding of how global warming works -- they will set important legal precedents if they are successful. They will also raise key questions that will surely be debated for years to come, such as:

• Who exactly should be held liable? Governments? Corporations? Whole industries? Individuals?
• If a corporation was a heavy polluter in the past but took aggressive anti-pollution measures later, to what extend would it still be liable?
• If a corporation was operating at a time before pollution's impact on the environment was recognized, how liable would they be?
• What about corporations that are no longer in business, or that have been acquired several times over?
• Would the US's refusal to sign the Kyoto Protocol make it automatically liable?
• What, if anything, would constitute an effective remedy, other than monetary damages?
• If pollution from one nation were conclusively shown to adversely affect another, could that be considered an act of aggression?
• Would developing countries be held to different legal standards than developed countries?
• What new regulations would develop as a result of successful lawsuits? How will regulated industries be monitored?
  

Of all these questions, the most fundamental is whether global warming is truly a manmade condition. The answer to that question will either nullify or propel forward this movement.

Source: CNSNews.com