FutureWire - futurism and emerging technology

Friday, January 14, 2005

CIA Looks Ahead to 2020

The National Intelligence Council, a strategic thinking group within the CIA, has issued a report called "Project 2020" that attempts to visualize the world 15 years hence. Overall, council vice-chairman David Gordon called the predicted changes "a very bumpy ride."

Among the group's scenarios:

  • Al Qaeda will go away, but terrorism won't. Smaller, more shadowy terrorist cells will continue to carry the flag for Islamic extremism. These groups will leverage technology to achieve an element of surprise in their attacks, which may involve biological agents.
  • The US will remain a superpower, but it will be joined in power and influence by China and India. Russia may continue to decline.
  • Iraq and Afghanistan could prove to be models of democracy for the rest of the Arab world. However, Iraq is also at risk of becoming another breeding ground for terrorists.
  • The US will no longer dominate popular culture, as India's "Bollywood" will rival and then eclipse Hollywood.

For the full downloadable report, click here.

Source: Toronto Star